This insightful and timely book considers the role of great-power competition in what has come to be known as gray zone conflict. Based on cutting-edge empirical research, it addresses the question: how can interactions between adversaries in international crises be managed in ways which avoid dangerous escalation? Drawing together diverse perspectives, an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts take a data-driven approach to analyzing international crises over the past 100 years. Taking the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop for critical evaluation, chapters examine US and NATO approaches to the management of escalation in asymmetric conflicts. Ultimately, the book identifies areas where classical deterrence theory is incompatible with the realities of the contemporary conflict environment, and proposes innovative tools for managing crises in the future. Providing historical overviews of escalation management in international crises, this comprehensive book is essential reading for students and scholars of international politics, international relations, terrorism and security, and foreign policy, particularly those studying Chinese, Russian and US strategic decision making. It will also be beneficial to policy analysts, military leaders, and journalists focusing on contemporary international issues.

Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading expert opinions on international mediation, examining how international mediation practices, mechanisms and institutions should adapt to the changing characteristics of contemporary international crises. Chapters consider the challenges facing the international community when aiming to achieve lasting resolutions in intrastate and interstate conflicts during acute periods of crisis and potential or actual violence escalation. The authors also provide much-needed context for 'gray zone conflict', the actions of non-state actors, gender dynamics and biases that hinder mediation. The ever-expanding role of mediation means authors also cover human security, climate diplomacy and cyber disputes. Using extensive analysis of salient cases as well as quantitative studies of aggregate trends, this Research Handbook is the vital reference work for mediation in contemporary international politics. The concluding chapter explores the overarching themes and key policy recommendations from the leading voices in mediation. An essential reference for postgraduate researchers of international politics, this Research Handbook provides both quantitative and qualitative analysis to further case knowledge for research. In addition, the case studies and concluding chapter will be a much-needed resource for policymakers and practitioners in defence policy and peace advocacy due to their emphasis on lessons learned and best practice. Contributors include: P. Aall, Z. Bakaki, J.A. Bangerter, M. Barrett, K. Beardsley, D. Belo, T. Boehmelt, A. Boutellis, M. Brecher, D. Carment, A.B. Celik, K. Christie, C.A. Crocker, D.E. Cunningham, K. DeRouen Jr., P.F. Diehl, Y. Duman, S.S. Gartner, M. Gelfand, S. Gent, Z. Goncz, J.M. Greig, F.O. Hampson, E. Hoffman, P.T. Hopmann, L. Hultman, L. Kemp, R.C. Maness, M.M. Melin, E.J. Menninga, M. Nikolko, P. Olander, A.P. Owsiak, D. Quinn, L. Reid, M. Sarver, N. Schreffler, J.A. Stevenson, I. Svensson, B. Valeriano, S. Vukovic, P.B. White, J. Wilkenfeld, M.-J. Zahar, I.W. Zartman

Current conceptions of mediation can often fail to capture the complexity and intricacy of modern conflicts. This Research Handbook addresses this problem by presenting the leading expert opinions on international mediation, examining how international mediation practices, mechanisms and institutions should adapt to the changing characteristics of contemporary international crises. Chapters consider the challenges facing the international community when aiming to achieve lasting resolutions in intrastate and interstate conflicts during acute periods of crisis and potential or actual violence escalation. The authors also provide much-needed context for 'gray zone conflict', the actions of non-state actors, gender dynamics and biases that hinder mediation. The ever-expanding role of mediation means authors also cover human security, climate diplomacy and cyber disputes. Using extensive analysis of salient cases as well as quantitative studies of aggregate trends, this Research Handbook is the vital reference work for mediation in contemporary international politics. The concluding chapter explores the overarching themes and key policy recommendations from the leading voices in mediation. An essential reference for postgraduate researchers of international politics, this Research Handbook provides both quantitative and qualitative analysis to further case knowledge for research. In addition, the case studies and concluding chapter will be a much-needed resource for policymakers and practitioners in defence policy and peace advocacy due to their emphasis on lessons learned and best practice. Contributors include: P. Aall, Z. Bakaki, J.A. Bangerter, M. Barrett, K. Beardsley, D. Belo, T. Boehmelt, A. Boutellis, M. Brecher, D. Carment, A.B. Celik, K. Christie, C.A. Crocker, D.E. Cunningham, K. DeRouen Jr., P.F. Diehl, Y. Duman, S.S. Gartner, M. Gelfand, S. Gent, Z. Goncz, J.M. Greig, F.O. Hampson, E. Hoffman, P.T. Hopmann, L. Hultman, L. Kemp, R.C. Maness, M.M. Melin, E.J. Menninga, M. Nikolko, P. Olander, A.P. Owsiak, D. Quinn, L. Reid, M. Sarver, N. Schreffler, J.A. Stevenson, I. Svensson, B. Valeriano, S. Vukovic, P.B. White, J. Wilkenfeld, M.-J. Zahar, I.W. Zartman

Recent generations have experienced dramatic improvements in the quality of human life across the globe. Wars between states are fought less frequently and are less lethal. Food is more plentiful and more easily accessed. In most parts of the world, birthrates are down and life expectancy up. Significantly fewer people live in extreme poverty, relative to the overall population. Statistics would argue that the human race has never before flourished as it has in this moment. And yet, even with this progress, we face a number of seemingly intractable challenges to the welfare of both states and individuals, including: Governmental instability undermining the lives of citizens, both within and beyond their borders; Persistent and recurring intrastate conflict due to ineffective conflict management strategies; Marginally successful development efforts and growing income inequality, both within and between nations, as a result of uncoordinated and ineffective global development strategies; Internecine conflict in multiethnic societies, manifested by exclusion, discrimination, and ultimately violence, the inevitable consequence of an insufficient focus on managing the inherent tensions in diverse societies; Global climate change with the possibility of catastrophic long-term consequences, following an inability to effectively come to terms with and respond to the impact of human activity on our environment. These challenges require a newly collaborative, intentional, and systematic approach. This book offers a blueprint for how to get there, calling for increased leadership responsibility, clarity of mission, and empowerment of states and individuals. It is designed to transform lofty but often vague agendas into concrete, measurable progress. It believes in the capacity of humanity to rise to the occasion, to come together to address these increasingly critical global problems, and offers one way forward.

Recent generations have experienced dramatic improvements in the quality of human life across the globe. Wars between states are fought less frequently and are less lethal. Food is more plentiful and more easily accessed. In most parts of the world, birthrates are down and life expectancy up. Significantly fewer people live in extreme poverty, relative to the overall population. Statistics would argue that the human race has never before flourished as it has in this moment. And yet, even with this progress, we face a number of seemingly intractable challenges to the welfare of both states and individuals, including: Governmental instability undermining the lives of citizens, both within and beyond their borders; Persistent and recurring intrastate conflict due to ineffective conflict management strategies; Marginally successful development efforts and growing income inequality, both within and between nations, as a result of uncoordinated and ineffective global development strategies; Internecine conflict in multiethnic societies, manifested by exclusion, discrimination, and ultimately violence, the inevitable consequence of an insufficient focus on managing the inherent tensions in diverse societies; Global climate change with the possibility of catastrophic long-term consequences, following an inability to effectively come to terms with and respond to the impact of human activity on our environment. These challenges require a newly collaborative, intentional, and systematic approach. This book offers a blueprint for how to get there, calling for increased leadership responsibility, clarity of mission, and empowerment of states and individuals. It is designed to transform lofty but often vague agendas into concrete, measurable progress. It believes in the capacity of humanity to rise to the occasion, to come together to address these increasingly critical global problems, and offers one way forward.

This new book shows how international crises are dangerous episodes that can be destabilizing not only to the actors directly involved but also to the entire international system. Recognizing the primacy of crises as defining moments in international relations, scholars and policy makers alike are increasingly concerned with identifying mechanisms for crisis prevention, management and resolution. Mediating International Crises is the first comprehensive study into one such mechanism that has been used with increasing frequency in the 20th Century: mediation by a third party. This important research attempts to determine whether third party mediation is an effective means of alleviating or managing the turbulent and violent consequences of crises. The authors examine three approaches to mediation: facilitation communication between parties, formulating possible agreements and manipulating the parties through sanctions or rewards. They explore how these mediation approaches affect crisis outcomes through sanctions or rewards The book begins with a thorough discussion of the theoretical literature on mediation, with particular attention paid to the important distinction between crisis management and conflict resolution. The authors then provide empirical analyses of instances of mediation in 20th century international crises, which is supplemented with data derived from simulated negotiation settings with human subjects.

This new book shows how international crises are dangerous episodes that can be destabilizing not only to the actors directly involved but also to the entire international system. Recognizing the primacy of crises as defining moments in international relations, scholars and policy makers alike are increasingly concerned with identifying mechanisms for crisis prevention, management and resolution. Mediating International Crises is the first comprehensive study into one such mechanism that has been used with increasing frequency in the 20th Century: mediation by a third party. This important research attempts to determine whether third party mediation is an effective means of alleviating or managing the turbulent and violent consequences of crises. The authors examine three approaches to mediation: facilitation communication between parties, formulating possible agreements and manipulating the parties through sanctions or rewards. They explore how these mediation approaches affect crisis outcomes through sanctions or rewards The book begins with a thorough discussion of the theoretical literature on mediation, with particular attention paid to the important distinction between crisis management and conflict resolution. The authors then provide empirical analyses of instances of mediation in 20th century international crises, which is supplemented with data derived from simulated negotiation settings with human subjects.

"Peace and Conflict" is a biennial publication that provides cutting-edge data and analysis concerning domestic and international conflicts and corresponding peacebuilding activities.Regular features of the book include chapters that forecast the future risks of political and social instability, as well as report trends and patterns in conflict, democratization, and terrorism.The special theme of the 2014 edition is the trend toward focusing on the micro level in the study of conflict and peacebuilding. Chapters addressing this theme examine the finely grained relationships observed below the level of nation-states, with attention to key topics such as ethnicity, climate, foreign aid, sexual violence, mass atrocities, and humanitarian and reconstruction responses. "Peace and Conflict" is a large-format, full-color resource with numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual and summary presentation of information. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts emphasizing major findings."Peace and Conflict 2014" was featured on Fareed Zakaria GPS, Found HereAlso see Zakaria's article in the "Washington Post"Found Here

Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides cutting-edge data and analysis concerning domestic and international conflicts and corresponding peacebuilding activities. The book include forecasts of risks of political and social instability, as well as trends and patterns in conflict. The 2014 edition focusses on the 'micro level' in the study of conflict and peacebuilding, such as social relationships below the level of the nation-state, with attention to key topics such as ethnicity, climate change, foreign aid and sexual violence. Peace and Conflict is a large-format, full-color resource with numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual and summary presentation of information. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts emphasizing major findings.

The process of negotiation, standing as it does between war and peace in many parts of the globe, has never been a more vital process to understand than in today's rapidly changing international system. Students of negotiation must first understand key IR concepts as they try to incorporate the dynamics of the many anomalous actors that regularly interact with conventional state agents in the diplomatic arena. This hands-on text provides an essential introduction to this high-stakes realm, exploring the impact of complex multilateralism on traditional negotiation concepts such as bargaining, issue salience, and strategic choice. Using an easy-to-understand board game analogy as a framework for studying negotiation episodes, the authors include a rich array of real-world cases and examples-now updated with the results of the Paris climate change agreement-to illustrate key themes, including the intensity of crisis situations for negotiators, the role of culture in communication, and the impact of domestic-level politics on international negotiations. Providing tools for analyzing why negotiations succeed or fail, this innovative text also presents effective exercises and learning approaches that enable students to understand the complexities of negotiation by engaging in the diplomatic process themselves.

The process of negotiation, standing as it does between war and peace in many parts of the globe, has never been a more vital process to understand than in today's rapidly changing international system. Students of negotiation must first understand key IR concepts as they try to incorporate the dynamics of the many anomalous actors that regularly interact with conventional state agents in the diplomatic arena. This hands-on text provides an essential introduction to this high-stakes realm, exploring the impact of complex multilateralism on traditional negotiation concepts such as bargaining, issue salience, and strategic choice. Using an easy-to-understand board game analogy as a framework for studying negotiation episodes, the authors include a rich array of real-world cases and examples to illustrate key themes, including the intensity of crisis situations for negotiators, the role of culture in communication, and the impact of domestic-level politics on international negotiations. Providing tools for analyzing why negotiations succeed or fail, this innovative text also presents effective exercises and learning approaches that enable students to understand the complexities of negotiation by engaging in the diplomatic process themselves.

As the twentieth century draws to a close, it is time to look back on an epoch of widespread turmoil, including two world wars, the end of the colonial era in world history, and a large number of international crises and conflicts. This book is designed to shed light on the causes and consequences of military-security crises since the end of World War I, in every region, across diverse economic and political regimes, and cultures. The primary aim of this volume is to uncover patterns of crises, conflicts and wars and thereby to contribute to the advancement of international peace and world order. The culmination of more than twenty years of research by Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, the book analyzes crucial themes about crisis, conflict, and war and presents systematic knowledge about more than 400 crises, thirty-one protracted conflicts and almost 900 state participants. The authors explore many aspects of conflict, including the ethnic dimension, the effect of different kinds of political regimes--notably the question whether democracies are more peaceful than authoritarian regimes, and the role of violence in crisis management. They employ both case studies and aggregate data analysis in a Unified Model of Crisis to focus on two levels of analysis--hostile interactions among states, and the behavior of decision-makers who must cope with the challenge posed by a threat to values, time pressure, and the increased likelihood that military hostilities will engulf them. This book will appeal to scholars in history, political science, sociology, and economics as well as policy makers interested in the causes and effects of crises in international relations. The rich data sets will serve researchers for years to come as they probe additional aspects of crisis, conflict and war in international relations. Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science, McGill University. Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor and Chair of the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland. They are the coauthors of Crises in the Twentieth Century: A Handbook of International Crisis, among other books and articles.